US inflation jumped 7.5% in past year, a 40-year high, hitting the wallets of SW Floridians

Inflation soared over the past year at its highest rate in four decades, hammering America’s consumers, wiping out pay raises and reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s decision to begin raising borrowing rates across the economy.

Economists say unless the federal reserve steps in we’ll be looking at higher prices for longer. Until then, keep couponing, shop the sales and check your credit cards for cash back rewards on groceries to keep any change you can in your wallet.

The Labor Department said Thursday that consumer prices jumped 7.5% last month compared with 12 months earlier, the steepest year-over-year increase since February 1982. Shortages of supplies and workers, heavy doses of federal aid, ultra-low interest rates and robust consumer spending combined to send inflation accelerating in the past year.

When measured from December to January, inflation was 0.6%, the same as the previous month and more than economists had expected. Prices had risen 0.7% from October to November and 0.9% from September to October.

Florida Gulf Coast University economist Dr. Victor Claar said meat is taking the biggest hit up a whopping 12.2% from a year ago. “That’s pretty significant. It’s not like one category is up; meat prices overall … and you can’t really substitute much among different meat products.”

There are few signs that inflation will slow significantly anytime soon. Most of the factors that have forced up prices since last spring remain in place: Wages are rising at the fastest pace in at least 20 years. Ports and warehouses are overwhelmed, with hundreds of workers at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, the nation’s busiest, out sick last month. Many products and parts remain in short supply as a result.

The steady surge in prices has left many Americans less able to afford food, gas, rent, child care and other necessities. More broadly, inflation has emerged as the most significant risk factor for the economy and a severe threat to President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats as midterm elections loom later this year.

The Fed and its chair, Jerome Powell, have pivoted sharply away from the ultra-low-interest rate policies that the Fed pursued since the pandemic devastated the economy in March 2020.

Over time, those higher rates will raise the costs for a wide range of borrowing, from mortgages and credit cards to auto loans and corporate credit. For the Fed, the risk is that steadily tightening credit for consumers and businesses could trigger another recession.

In conference calls with investors, many large corporations have said they expect supply shortages to persist until at least the second half of this year. Companies from Chipotle to Levi’s have also warned that they will likely raise prices again this year after having already done so in 2021.

Chipotle said it has increased menu prices by 10% to offset the rising costs of beef and transportation as well as higher employee wages. And the restaurant chain said it would consider further price increases if inflation keeps rising.

“We keep thinking that beef is going to level up and then go down, and it just hasn’t happened yet,” said John Hartung, the company’s chief financial officer.

Executives at Chipotle and Starbucks and some other consumer-facing companies have said their customers so far don’t seem fazed by the higher prices.

Last year, Levi Strauss & Co. raised prices by roughly 7% above 2019 levels because of rising costs, including labor, and plans to do so again this year. Even so, the San Francisco-based company has upgraded its sales forecasts for 2022.

“Right now, every signal we’re seeing is positive,” CEO Chip Bergh told analysts.

Many small businesses, which typically have lower profit margins than larger companies and have struggled to match their sizable pay raises, are also raising prices. The National Federation for Independent Business, a trade group, said it found in a monthly survey that 61% of small companies increased their prices in January, the most significant proportion since 1974 and up from just 15% before the pandemic.

“More small business owners started the new year raising prices in an attempt to pass on higher inventory, supplies and labor costs,” said Bill Dunkelberg, the NFIB’s chief economist. “In addition to inflation issues, owners are also raising compensation at record-high rates to attract qualified employees to their open positions.”

Those pay gains could eventually force additional price hikes as companies seek to cover higher wages.

For months WINK News has kept track of the same 10 items like milk, yogurt, and eggs to see how much more you’re spending at the same Walmart, Publix, and Target.

For the first time since we started tracking prices, Yoplait yogurt went up at Publix; from 10 containers for $6.70 to $7.79.

Milk now costs 20 cents more at Target at $3.89 a gallon. And a carton of 18 large eggs jumped 82 cents at Walmart; now running you $2.82.

In the past year, sharp increases in the costs of gas, food, autos and furniture have upended many Americans’ budgets. In December, economists at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School estimated that the average household had to spend $3,500 more than in 2020 to buy an identical basket of goods and services.

Special events can sometimes bring a silver lining. Dr. Claar points to meat prices tending to drop as the Super Bowl rolls around.

“[They] put the chicken wings on sale, they put the ground beef on sale and I know the prices are higher at regular prices,” he explained, “but they put that stuff on sale because they want you to go to their store.”

Powell signaled two weeks ago that the central bank would likely raise its benchmark short-term rate multiple times this year, with the first hike almost surely coming in March. Investors have priced in at least five rate increases for 2022.