The Weather Authority tracking area of potential development in Atlantic

Published: Updated:

The Weather Authority is watching a new area in the Atlantic with a 40% chance of development over the next five to 10 days.

The next name on the list of storms is Ernesto.

Chief Meteorologist Matt Devitt said, “While I can’t rule out development before the Caribbean, better organization occurs in the Caribbean and especially while in the Atlantic. Does have potential to become our next named storm.”

The Eastern Caribbean timing would be Monday to Thursday.

Leeward Windward Islands would be at the beginning of that time frame, Puerto Rico would be in the middle and Hispaniola would be at the end.

“While in the Caribbean, we’ll have to see if it impacts land or it could ‘thread the needle’ with the center slipping between the islands over water,” Devitt said. “Land interaction would cause a temporary hit in intensity for the system.”

The current model majority is for the system to curve just east of Florida, but that is not a guarantee yet.

A couple of possibilities still keep Florida in the mix.

It hasn’t developed yet and models historically can struggle with systems that aren’t organized.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Debby has been downgraded to a depression as of the 5 p.m. update and continues to travel north-northwest at 10 mph with sustained wind speeds of 35 mph.

As of the 5 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center, it was over south-central North Carolina.

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