Conservative party poised to narrowly win Spain’s election but without majority to topple Sánchez

Spain’s conservative Popular Party was set to narrowly win the country’s national election Sunday, but without the majority needed to topple the coalition government of Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez.

With 90% of votes counted, the Popular Party was on course to secure 136 of the 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies, the lower house of the Spanish parliament. Sánchez’s Spanish Socialist Workers Party was poised to take 122 seats, two more than it had in the outgoing legislature.

Although the Socialists can likely call on the predicted 31 seats of the left-wing Sumar, or Joining Forces alliance, and several smaller parties, there was a real possibility that neither side would be able to secure a majority.

The close election was likely to produce weeks of political jockeying. The next prime minister only would be voted on once lawmakers are installed in the new Congress of Deputies. The absolute majority needed to form a government is 176 seats.

Pre-election polls had predicted a bigger victory for the Popular Party and the possibility for it to form a coalition with the far-right Vox party. Such a coalition would have returned a far-right force to the Spanish government for the first time since the country transitioned to democracy in the late 1970s following the nearly 40-year rule of dictator Francisco Franco.

Sánchez was trying to win a third consecutive national election since taking power in 2018. The Socialists and the junior member of its coalition government took a beating from the conservative party and the far-right Vox party in regional and local elections in May, prompting Sánchez to call Sunday’s early election.

Most polling during the campaign forecast that the national vote would go the same way but require the Popular Party to rely on support from Vox to form a government, with PP candidate Alberto Núñez Feijóo at the helm.

A PP-Vox government would have meant another EU member has moved firmly to the right, a trend seen recently in Sweden, Finland and Italy. Countries such as Germany and France are concerned by what such a shift would portend for EU immigration and climate policies.

Spain’s two main leftist parties are pro-EU participation. On the right, the PP is also in favor of the EU. Vox, headed by Santiago Abascal, is opposed to EU interference in Spain’s affairs.

The election comes as Spain holds the EU’s rotating presidency. Sánchez had hoped to use the six-month term to showcase the advances his government had made. An election defeat for Sánchez could see the PP taking over the EU presidency reins.

Sánchez was one of the first to vote, casting his ballot in a polling station in Madrid.

Commenting later on the large number of foreign media covering the election, he said: “This means that what happens today is going to be very important not just for us but also for Europe and I think that should also make us reflect.”

“I don’t want to say I’m optimistic or not. I have good vibrations,” Sánchez added.

An embargoed tracking poll published by Spanish public broadcaster RTVE on the closing of the voting had pointed to an uncertain outcome.

Sumar, which brings together 15 small leftist parties, is led by second Deputy Prime Minister Yolanda Díaz, the only woman among the top four candidates.

Díaz called for everyone to vote, recalling that the freedom to vote didn’t always exist in Spain.

“A lot is at risk,” Diáz said after casting her ballot. “For people of my generation, they are the most important elections.”

At stake is “waking up tomorrow with more rights, more democracy and more freedom,” she said.

The election was taking place at the height of summer, with millions of voters likely to be vacationing away from their regular polling places. However, postal voting requests soared before Sunday.

With no party expected to garner an absolute majority, the choice is basically between another leftist coalition and a partnership of the right and the far right.

For poll favorite Feijóo, “It is clear that many things are in play, what model of country we want, to have a solid and strong government.”

Vox’s Abascal said he hoped for “a massive mobilization (of voters) that will allow Spain to change direction.”

Alejandro Bleda, 45, did not say who he voted for but indicated that he was backing the leftist parties. “Given the polarization in this country, it’s to vote either for 50 years of backwardness or for progress,” he said.

The main issues at stake are “a lot of freedoms, social rights, public health and education,” Bleda said after voting in the Palacio de Valdés public school polling station in central Madrid.

Voters are to elect 350 members to the lower house of Parliament and 208 members to the Senate.

Carmen Acero, 62, who voted for the Popular Party, compared Sánchez to Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and said she voted because “to continue with Pedro Sánchez is hell.”

Sporting a Spanish flag on her phone, Acero accused Sánchez of being an “assassin” for allying with the small Basque regional party Bildu, which includes some former members of the now-defunct armed separatist group, ETA.

Coming on the tail of a month of heat waves, temperatures were expected to average above 35 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit), or 5 to 10 degrees Celsius above normal in many parts of the country. Authorities distributed fans to many of the stations.

“We have the heat, but the right to exercise our vote freely is stronger than the heat,” said Rosa Maria Valladolid-Prieto, 79, in Barcelona.

Sánchez’s government has steered Spain through the COVID-19 pandemic and dealt with an inflation-driven economic downturn made worse by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

But his dependency on fringe parties to keep his minority coalition afloat, including the separatist forces from Catalonia and the Basque Country, and his passing of a slew of liberal-minded laws may cost him his job.