As of the 11 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center, we are tracking Tropical Depression #5. This disturbance would become Tropical Storm Elsa as early as tomorrow morning.
The storm is racing to the west at 23 mph approximately 1,000 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. A tropical storm warning is in place for St. Lucia, Martinique, and Barbados. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Guadeloupe, St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
Latest model data and the NHC forecast track shows the storm moving into the Caribbean Sea late this week and near South Florida early next week. The important thing to remember is a lot can change between now and then.
There is still model discrepancy on how strong the system could be and where it could go. There are a lot of moving parts: a ridge of high pressure, a trough of low pressure, wind shear, dry air, and the mountainous terrain over the Caribbean Islands.
For now, it’s just something to monitor closely, especially next Monday through Wednesday. Florida is one of many possibilities expanding over 500 miles wide.
Don’t panic, just prepare! Be sure to follow the Weather Authority for all the latest tropical updates, where there is no hype, just the facts.