Tropical wave weakens, likely to change course away from SWFL

FORT MYERS, Fla. — A weakened tropical wave 99L that was once tracked to move in the general direction of Southwest Florida is likely to change course as uncertainty remains about how strong it will be by early next week.

Hurricane Hunter aircraft observed winds of only 10 mph shortly after 5 p.m. Thursday, while other measurements indicated winds of 20-25 mph. That’s weaker than previous models suggested it would be at this point.

There weren’t thunderstorms around the center of circulation, another sign of weakness. The center was about 750 miles away from Southwest Florida as of 5 p.m.

The wave contended with dry air, wind shear and the mountains of Hispanola on Thursday, all of which are unfavorable for development.

However, all are expected to be less of a factor by Friday, giving the system a chance to strengthen.

Forecast models have significant disagreement on just how strong it will become, and plenty of disagreement also exists about the possible path the system will take. Models should begin to paint a clearer picture Friday as the system moves toward the Bahamas.

Until then, the general expectation is for more clouds and more rain in Southwest Florida on Monday and Tuesday.

If the wave develops into a tropical storm, it would be named Hermine.

Residents in Florida and across the Southeast and Gulf Coast need to monitor this system, but those who made basic hurricane preparations at the start of hurricane season in June need not take additional steps at this point.

Visit WINK News Hurricane Central for more on what those basic preparations are, and for continuing coverage of the tropical system.

Residents, officials keep eye on forecasts

Some Southwest Florida residents admit they don’t have everything they need on hand. Scott Adams was shopping Thursday at a Home Depot and said he usually waits until the last minute to stock up.

“I do have a generator; I keep quite a bit of water at the house, but it’s not too much more than that,” Adams said. “I’m usually so busy I kind of … you’re not exactly sure what’s going to be the outcome and so I wait.”

Beyond basic preparations, select groups should take special precautions. The Lee County Sheriff’s Office Marine Unit instructs boaters to be mindful of rainwater that can build up and cause damage and to secure loose items that can blow away in heavy winds.

Island residents and business owners should make sure they have the proper hurricane re-entry passes if authorities decide to close causeways.

Marco Island officials spent Thursday testing equipment, fueling up generators and charging batteries and backup marine radios. The barrier island is low-lying, so storm surge and flooding are concerns in the event of a storm.

Past storms have overflowed canals, destroyed docks and flooded roads on the island. Marco Island city workers checked storm drains Thursday to make sure they’re cleaned out. Police officers and firefighters fueled up boats and jet skis in case severe flooding necessitates a rescue.

The city sent a memo telling first responders to make their preparations now so that they’ll be able to help the community if a storm approaches.

The potential threat of a system impacting Southwest Florida has election officials worried turnout will be low Tuesday for the Florida primary election. Collier County officials encourage voters to cast their ballots in the next few days before the tropical system might become an issue.