SWFL to feel worse-than-average impacts of rapid sea-level rise

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration models show the sea level will rise 1 foot by 2050, but projections for the eastern side of the Gulf of Mexico show an even worse rise of around 1.5 feet.  Experts say we have around 30 years until we see that full impact, and it will happen gradually, but we will need to be prepared.

Michael Savarese, a marine and earth science professor at Florida Gulf Coast University, says there are two problems with sea-level rise.

The first problem is nuisance flooding: Tides will be so extreme that they will flood more city streets, backyards and natural ecosystems. The second problem is storm surge, come hurricane season.

“As the sea level gets higher, if you put a storm surge on top of that sea-level rise, then storm surge has greater power to inundate the landscape,” Savarese said. “As we move forward, if, you know, Irma replays herself, or if we experience another major Category 3 or higher storm, we are likely to experience greater storm surge associated with those impacts because of sea-level rise.”

Savarese says Everglades City, for instance, has already had trouble with nuisance flooding; a sea-level rise this intense is going to be a serious problem for the city to deal with and may not even be something to which it can adapt.

There may be a time, too, when properties are no longer insurable because insurance companies won’t want to take the risk.

Carrie Schuman, the coastal resilience manager of the Sanibel Captiva Conservation Foundation, says rising sea levels will impact Southwest Florida’s infrastructure, which is why we need to think about taking steps to protect our homes and environments.

“There’s a lot of things that would probably need to happen at different levels,” Schuman said. “That’s why you think about planning for this kind of thing, you know, happening at the municipal level, happening on the homeowner level or homeowner’s association levels, and you’re thinking about the kind of best practices that can help detain water in a useful or a reasonable way in your yard, for example.”

If you are someone who is insured through a flood insurance program, you will have to act accordingly based on the FEMA flood maps. Homeowner’s insurance and flood insurance have already gone up, so you can imagine what those costs may look like by 2050.