Colorado State University doubles down on aggressive 2024 hurricane season forecast

Author: Lauren Kreidler Producer: Carolyn Dolcimascolo
Published: Updated:

Colorado State University released its new Extended Range Forecast and Landfall Strike Probability for the 2024 hurricane season on Tuesday, June 11.

It remains unchanged from the early forecast CSU released in April.

“The updated, unchanged CSU forecast is not surprising considering how aggressive they went with their original numbers,” added The Weather Authority Meteorologist Lauren Kreidler.

hurricane season 2024

The research team at the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project predicted a well above-average season.

  • 23 named storms
  • 11 will become hurricanes
  • 5 will reach major hurricane status

A major hurricane has sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour and is classified as Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.

An average tropical weather season sees 14 storms, seven named storms, and three major hurricanes.

“This was the highest forecast numbers they have ever put out, so the lack of change goes to show how busy they expect this year’s hurricane season to be,” elaborated Kreidler.

CSU researchers anticipate that La Niña conditions will develop by the peak of the Atlantic
hurricane season, likely resulting in reduced levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind

“We like to see wind shear. It typically helps break up or destroy a storm,” said Kreidler. “Hurricanes don’t perform well when the upper-level winds are too strong.”

2024 hurricane season
CREDIT: Colorado State University

“Extremely warm sea surface temperatures provide a much more conducive dynamic and thermodynamic environment for hurricane formation and intensification,” according to the CSU forecast report. “We anticipate a well above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”

Hurricane season ends on November 30.

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