Tropics: AL 92 approaches NE Florida coast, second disturbance 60% chance of development

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According to the National Hurricane Center, a small but concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms persists, and an area of low pressure, designated as AL 92, is around 80 miles east-southeast of Brunswick, Georgia.

As of 2 p.m. Friday, this system has a well-defined center of circulation.

The associated showers and thunderstorms are not organized enough for AL 92 to be considered a tropical cyclone. Nevertheless, the system only needs a slight increase in its organization of showers and thunderstorms to form a short-lived tropical depression before reaching the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia on Friday night.

AL 92 is producing near 35 mph winds.

“Only a small increase in the organization of the showers and thunderstorms could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression before it reaches the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia tonight, and interests there should monitor its progress,” said NHC’s 2 p.m. bulletin.

AL 92 has a 60% chance of developing in the next 48 hours and the next seven days.


Another disturbance is showing a broad area of low pressure forecast to form over southeastern Mexico and northern Central America later on Friday.

Environmental conditions look conducive to gradual development after the system moves over the Bay of Campeche on Saturday.

A tropical depression could form over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend as it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.

Formation chances over the next 48 hours are 60%.

Formation chances through the next seven days are 60%.

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