Tracking the Tropics: Patty forms in North Atlantic, tracking Caribbean development

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An area in the Southwestern Caribbean has a high 80% chance of developing over the upcoming week while Subtropical Storm Patty forms in the North Atlantic.

An area of disorganized showers and storms is trying to develop, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week. 

Development will be gradual as this drifts north and northwestward over the upcoming week, with models showing it working its way into the Gulf of Mexico by midweek.

It is too early to determine its future path and strength as models are showing an array of possibilities, however regardless of development, our rain chances here locally will increase by midweek as we see an increase of tropical moisture.

There is a large range between the models because it’s still early and a system hasn’t formed yet. The large range of spots stretches from Florida to Mexico. 

The conditions in the Gulf of Mexico are not as conducive for development as they were in August or September. Water temperatures are slightly cooler, reaching the mid to upper 70s, therefore there are lower energy levels in the Gulf.

However, some models show this developing into a tropical storm or hurricane. It is too early to speculate how strong or weak this system would be.

Another named storm is far from Florida. Subtropical Storm Patty formed west of the Azores Saturday morning. It will not impact Florida and is expected to pass near or over the Azores this weekend.

Our WINK Weather Authority team will continue monitoring this area and update you with the latest.

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