Tropical wave could become better organized in coming days

Published: Updated:

FORT MYERS, Fla. — A tropical wave known as Invest 99L that is currently impacting the Lesser Antilles east of Puerto Rico with heavy rain could strengthen and become an issue for Florida in the days ahead.

But it is too early to determine the impact the system could have on Florida because of “large uncertainties regarding this system’s development and future track,” meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday evening.

The wave was trying to gather strength and structure Wednesday morning when the National Hurricane Center called for an 80 percent chance of development. That chance of development then weakened to 50 percent by 10 p.m. Wednesday.

Still, strengthening is possible for the next three to five days as the system continues to move toward the west-northwest and conditions become more favorable given the existence of very warm waters, low to moderate wind shear and the system slowing down a bit. Models still disagree with regard to forecast track, strength and timing.

If the wave develops into a tropical storm, it would be named Hermine.

Although models can change, the European Model, also known as ECMWF, has consistently suggested over the past few days that the system will make some type of impact in southern Florida. Although not always correct, the European model is statistically the most accurate in the world.

Residents in Florida and across the Southeast and Gulf Coast need to monitor this system by this weekend into early next week.

For more coverage of the system and instructions on how to prepare in case it becomes a storm that threatens Florida, visit WINK News Hurricane Central.

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