How to Interpret the Spaghetti Plot

One of the most exciting plots to see when a tropical system develops is the spaghetti plots. This is the graphic where all of the tracks of the various computer models are taking the system. In addition to a consensus of where the storm is most likely to track in the immediate future, the spaghetti plot also shows outliers. The models can deviate immediately, however they deviate from one another generally 2-3 days in the future. 

The important thing to keep in mind, like when interpreting the cone of uncertainty graphic, is the tracks represent the center of the tropical system. Hurricane impacts can reach hundreds of miles out from the center of their center, which is what each ‘spaghetti’ represents. When presented with tropical forecasts, the spaghetti models are helpful at which to look when the storm is far out to give an idea on whether or not you may be at risk. If you find yourself within 100-200 mile range of model consensus, it is time to start solidifying plans to evacuate.