Colorado State University is now calling for a near-average Atlantic basin hurricane season in 2023.
The university released its second forecast of the year and increased the number of forecasted named storms to 15 from 13.
Hurricane season began on Thursday and runs through Nov. 30. Of the predicted storms, researchers expect seven to become hurricanes and three to reach major hurricane strength, which is anything over category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
“While we anticipate a robust El Niño for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, the tropical and subtropical Atlantic have continued to anomalously warm to near-record levels,” the forecast states. “El Niño increases vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, but the anomalous warmth in the tropical and subtropical Atlantic may counteract some of the typical El Niño-driven increase in vertical wind shear.”
“Given the conflicting signals between a potentially robust El Niño and a much warmer-than-normal tropical and subtropical Atlantic, the team stresses that there is more uncertainty than normal with this outlook,” the forecast states.