The numbers bump up; 25 named storms now predicted for 2024 hurricane season

Reporter: Matt Devitt
Published: Updated:
CREDIT: @TradersParadise via Storyful

Beryl truned from a tropical depression to a named tropical storm on June 28.

Then, Hurricane Beryl broke records. On June 30, it reached Category 4 strength. That’s earlier than any other hurricane on record. Then, it did it again, reaching Category 5 strength on July 2.

On the heels of the deadly storm, which killed 11, Colorado State University has now updated its storm probabilities for the 2024 season.

New Forecast

  • Named Storms 25
  • Hurricanes 12
  • Major Hurricanes 6

“Colorado State continues to reaffirm that this will be a hyperactive season, even upping their numbers slightly since April,” noted The Weather Authority Chief Meteorologist Matt Devitt.

Previous Forecast (April 13, 2024)

  • Named Storms 23
  • Hurricanes 11
  • Major Hurricanes 5

Meteorological experts at CSU specifically noted Beryl and its rapid development as contributing to the university’s updated forecast.

“It’s because of above-normal water temperatures and a developing La Niña,” added Devitt.

Recorded high water temperatures for February and March reached those more closely associated with a typical June.

La Niña typically means less vertical wind shear, which refers to the change in wind speed and direction between roughly 5,000 and 35,000 feet above the ground.

named storm

“Strong vertical wind shear can rip a developing hurricane apart or even prevent it from forming,” explained Devitt. “Less shear means it’s less likely a storm will break apart.”

But an active season does not necessarily mean more U.S. landfalls.

“Despite 2023 being the fourth most active season on record, only one hurricane, Idalia, impacted the U.S.,” said Devitt. “In contrast, many storms curved north into the open Atlantic waters.”

The spontaneous nature of hurricanes could mean that Southwest Florida may be impacted heavily, lightly or not at all. Due to the uncertainty, the important point is to be prepared and stay tuned to The Weather Authority for all your hurricane season needs.

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