Potential Tropical System 9 forecast to become Cat 3 hurricane before landfall

Published: Updated:

The disturbance in the Western Caribbean, now named Potential Tropical System 9, will rapidly strengthen as it moves through the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall along the Panhandle of Florida Thursday evening.

It is now expected to become a major hurricane before making landfall along the west coast of northern Florida sometime late Thursday afternoon.

As of the 11 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center, the system is moving north-northwest at 6 mph and has maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.

A tropical storm watch has been issued for the Dry Tortugas and the Lower Florida Keys south of the Seven Mile Bridge.

The Weather Authority has been monitoring the steering currents across the entire United States over the last week, and models are finally agreeing on the steering pattern for the next few days.

Meteorologist Zach Maloch said, “An area of high pressure currently over Florida will be drifting east over the next few days, and while it will keep direct impacts off the coast of Southwest Florida, this storm will unfortunately directly impact the Panhandle of Florida on Thursday.”

The next name would be Helene.

You’ll see a lot more computer models on it for both track and strength updated every six hours.

Hurricane Hunters will be flying into the disturbance on Monday.

Chief Meteorologist Matt Devitt expects this to become a hurricane and make landfall as one too.

“Preliminary intensity models are between Category 1-3 on average, and it will strengthen over very warm water in the Gulf of Mexico. Upper-end intensities from a few models do show the potential for a Category 4. The 12z GFS (American) was one of those models,” Devitt said.

While Southwest Florida won’t be directly impacted by the center of the storm, we’ll see impactful and stormy weather on Thursday and Friday.

Rain

Rain bands with heavy rain will be arriving late Wednesday night and continue through Friday. We could see 2-5 inches of rainfall with higher totals along the coast.

Winds

Windy conditions with sustained winds from 15-30 mph Thursday and gusts up to 50 mph along the coast. Winds will be breezy on both Wednesday and Friday.

Tornadoes

Since we will be on the Eastern side of the storm, there is always a potential for tornadoes on Thursday midday and afternoon.

Storm Surge

Similar to Debby (a strengthening system offshore of Southwest Florida) we should see storm surge along the coast arriving on Thursday and lingering through Friday (water levels will stay high for multiple high tide cycles).

Looking at the recent guidance we can see about 2-4 feet of surge for our coastline.

Expect some updates on these impacts over the next few days.

It is still too early to know the specific impacts for wind, rain, surge, etc., along the Gulf Coast of Florida.

The models shown in the graphic below are Red (European), Magenta (AI European), Orange (United Kingdom), Blue (Canadian), Yellow (American) and Green (German).

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