CSU updates 2022 hurricane forecast, now calls for ‘well-above-average’ season

Colorado State University has increased its Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast and now calls for a well-above-average season in 2022.

The predictions increased by one across the board, with 20 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.

“We anticipate that either cool neutral ENSO or weak La Niña conditions will predominate over the next several months.” CSU said in its new report. “Sea surface temperatures averaged across portions of the tropical Atlantic are above normal, while most of the subtropical and mid-latitude eastern North Atlantic is much warmer than normal. We anticipate an above-normal probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean.”

As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted, CSU added.

NOAA PREDICTION

For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.

NOAA’s outlook is for overall seasonal activity and is not a landfall forecast. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2022 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, just prior to the historical peak of the season.