Changing how we interpret hurricane cones

The National Hurricane Center says many people focus on the forecast cone rather than their potential impacts. Lee and Charlotte Counties were always in Hurricane Ian’s cone and at risk for storm surge.

WINK News meteorologist Nash Rhodes explained the cone is more like a rough estimate of where the hurricane will land but said everyone must pay attention if they’re anywhere in, around, or near that cone.

When Hurricane Ian hit Southwest Florida, the National Hurricane Center said too many people were surprised because they were watching the center line of the cone and then banked on that being where Ian would land.

After the storm passed, many figured the storm sharply shifted away from Tampa and turned toward Lee County. But the National Hurricane Center said that wasn’t even a turn.

At this week’s governor’s hurricane conference event in Palm Beach County, the deputy director explained that Lee County was always in the cone.

Moreover, to improve forecast interpretations in the future, Nash Rhodes explains there may soon be a new way to draw your eyes away from the center.

“One of the big changes there floating around is potentially removing the center line of the hurricane cone. A lot of people would look at that line and say, hey, that’s gonna make landfall at X, Y, and Z. And as that shifts back and forth, they feel a sense of safety or a sense of fear, depending on how close that gets to them. And really, it’s just meant to be an average of the most likely area it could be making landfall,” Rhodes said.