Step aside Phil: The Weather Authority explains the Groundhog Day seasonal shift

Published: Updated:
Groundhog day
(AP Photo/Barry Reeger, File)

Groundhog Day is today, with many anticipating the highly respected – but not always accurate – forecast from arguably the most famous rodent.

After a cloudy, cool stretch of weather this winter thanks to the El Niño pattern, will Punxsutawney Phil predict six more weeks of winter or is spring on the horizon?

According to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, Christian settlers in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania gathered together to celebrate Candlemas Day on Feb. 2.

The holiday would have settlers take their candles to the church to bless them.

The practice was believed to bless their households for the remaining winter.

The holiday became popular in Europe, inspiring a folk song celebrating the holiday.

As the tradition evolved, Germany expanded on the lore, incorporating the hedgehog.

According to German lore, when the hedgehog saw his shadow on Candlemas Day there would be a “second winter” or six more weeks of bad weather.

With the absence of hedgehogs in the United States, a similar hibernating animal was chosen, the groundhog.

Through fun alliteration, the name and tradition of Punxsutawney Phil was born.

Punxsutawney Phil has been relied upon for forecasting a brief or extended winter since 1887; however, his accuracy rate in predicting the arrival of spring hasn’t improved over the years.

groundhog day
Credit: The Weather Authority

Records have shown that Phil is accurate 30 to 40% of the time, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information.

In addition, predicting the forecast on Feb. 2 isn’t just some random day.

The 2nd is considered the midpoint between winter and spring seasons, hence why Groundhog Day lands this upcoming Friday.

The Climate Prediction Center shows that our temperatures will likely be near average for the month of February.

Typically, the average high temperature in Fort Myers for February is 78 degrees.

We’ll see what Phil predicts this year; however, if you want the most accurate forecast, tune into WINK The Weather Authority team for your up-to-date forecasts.

Copyright ©2024 Fort Myers Broadcasting. All rights reserved.

This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed without prior written consent.