Hurricane Season: the cone, sea surface temperatures, and rapidly intensifying storms

Many are drawn to the forecast cone when a storm threatens our community. But The Weather Authority Meteorologist Zach Maloch and the National Hurricane Center warn: Look at the complete picture.

“It primarily focuses on track or the uncertainty in track,” said Cody Fritz, NHC Storm Surge Specialist.

“What we saw with Ian solidified what we were seeing in other areas, other storms, is an over-reliance on the cone and under-reliance on the watches and warnings,” explained Jamie Rhome, Deputy Director of the National Hurricane Center.

That’s because the cone doesn’t represent all the factors you should consider, such as the hazards.

“Worry about what kind of wind it might produce, what kind of storm surge might it produce, rainfall, tornadoes, even rip currents,” Senior Hurricane Specialist Robbie Berg told Maloch.

The impacts often extend far outside of the forecast cone.

“The cones have gotten smaller because the track forecasts have gotten better, but the storm size has not changed,” warned Daniel Brown, NHC Branch Chief in the Hurricane Specialist Unit.

And oftentimes, we have less time to prepare.

“The nation’s strongest hurricane, the ten strongest hurricanes to hit our country, all were just tropical storms three days before,” stated Brown.

Michael Brennan, Ph.D., is the Director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The high-end category fours, the category fives,
like Ian, are all systems that form
and make landfall within three to four days. Michael Brennan, National Hurricane Center Director

“They’re not the Irmas that come all the way across the Atlantic, where you have seven, ten, or fourteen days to watch,” warned Brennan.

And hotter than usual sea surface temperatures provide more fuel for storms.

“Just being over those warm waters, they might go through rapid intensification at the very early start of their lifetime,” Berg stated.

Sea surface temperatures must be at least eighty degrees for a tropical storm to develop. The record-high temperatures we’re seeing right now are one reason we expect an active season. According to NOAA, the intensity of tropical systems is also projected to increase as our planet warms.

“It’s scary because we’re not going to have five days to prepare for those storms. It could pop up and, two to three days later, affect our coastline,” according to Berg.

So, this hurricane season, be sure to stay informed and focus on the unique impacts each storm brings.