Tracking the Tropics: Disturbance has a 60% chance of development

Author: Juliana Mejia Writer: Matt Devitt, Bryanna Sterzenbach
Published: Updated:

Florida is one of several possibilities where a rainmaker or potential tropical system could go.

According to The Weather Authority Chief Meteorologist Matt Devitt, the chance of further development within the next seven days is 60%.

The tropical wave developed more storms on Wednesday that’ll continue with better organization and possible development into a tropical system in the days ahead.

Forecast models are still in disagreement about the development and movement of this wave over the next several days.

The Canadian model has a weak low-pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico near Florida.

The European model has shifted over 300 miles west compared to 24 hours ago, joining the American Model.

The American model points to a slow-developing low-pressure system in the Gulf.

According to current models, if the system stays just west and offshore of Southwest Florida, SWFL would be on the wetter eastern side of the low, with the potential for inches of rain.



“It is still too early to make an accurate call on track and intensity. Until the system forms, models historically struggle with specifics on both of those details,” added The Weather Authority Meteorologist Juliana Mejia.

This wave will take another day or two to develop (if further development occurs) as it tracks over warmer waters and escapes the Saharan dust it is currently embedded in. 



If Florida feels impacts, the timing would be Saturday, Aug. 3, into Sunday, Aug. 4.

If it does further develop, the next storm name is Debby.

The Weather Authority is on top of the system and in “monitor mode” for now. The team will keep you updated on the latest developments.

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