Tropical Storm Karen soaks Puerto Rico, long-term forecast still uncertain

The Atlantic continues to remain active with three named storms: Jerry, Karen and Lorenzo, as well as a tropical disturbance in the Gulf. Nothing unheard of, considering we’re on the back-end of the seasonal peak!

TROPICAL STORM KAREN

Karen will be a storm to watch over the next week. Recently, the storm has been battling high wind shear, which has not only prevented better organization, but also caused it to weaken into a tropical depression on Monday. As of Tuesday afternoon, Karen is trying to battle and overcome the shear, and has has restrengthened into a tropical storm as the center of it is near Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Heavy rain and flooding will be the primary threat for those areas as Karen passes by, weak and ragged.

Jerry’s possible influence later this week on the storm is why there’s a lot of uncertainty in track and intensity. The faster Jerry goes, the less Karen would be impacted. The slower Jerry goes, the more likely it would be to attract Karen to the northeast. A dome of high pressure then builds in to the north, causing the storm to slow down, and potentially curve to the west. Models are all over the place with intensity. Some have it falling apart, others have it strengthening to an upper end tropical storm or even a hurricane. It is still too early to determine how the system evolves and where it will end up.

You can trust the WINK News Weather Authority team to keep you updated!

#KAREN UPDATE: As if an earthquake wasn't enough last night, now Puerto Rico has to deal with a soaking tropical storm. Jerry's possible influence later this week on Karen is why there's a lot of uncertainty in track and intensity. West turn still possible. Stay tuned… #flwx pic.twitter.com/dzLoG833Nu

— Matt Devitt (@MattDevittWX) September 24, 2019

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO

Full speed ahead for a storm which could not only become a hurricane, but could even strengthen into a major hurricane (Category 3+) over the next week. This will occur as it curves northwest in the open Atlantic Ocean. Lorenzo is no immediate threat to land.

TROPICAL STORM JERRY

Jerry is a non-issue for Southwest Florida and the eastern United States. Throughout the week, both before and after Bermuda, increasing wind shear and dry air will gradually weaken the storm.

ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICS

A weak area of low pressure in the southern Gulf of Mexico is producing disorganized shower and storms. Slow development is possible as it moves towards the west. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 20% chance of development over the next five days.