Tropical Storm Isaias forms with Southwest Florida in forecast cone

Tropical Storm Isaias (pronunciation: ees-ah-EE-ahs) formed Wednesday night, and our team is monitoring it about 320 miles east-southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.

The National Hurricane Center forecast cone has Isaias approaching Florida by this weekend, and Southwest Florida is included in the forecast cone. However, it’s important to remember that a lot can change between now and then.

As of 11 p.m., Isaias has max winds of 50 mph and is moving west-northwest at approximately 20 mph.

Environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for development over the next few days, but there is still model discrepancy on how strong this system could get, and where it could go. Warm ocean water, a slow movement, and less land interaction could allow this system to strengthen. What could weaken it? More time over land, increased wind shear, and dry air.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rain, gusty wind, and dangerous beach and surf conditions are expected across portions of the Leeward Islands now through the next few hours. These conditions will spread across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this afternoon through Thursday morning, the Dominican Republic and Haiti through early Thursday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Thursday afternoon.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, the U.S. Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands, Barbuda, Anguilla, Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, the Dominican Republic southern and northern coastlines. Also included, the north coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Elsewhere in the tropics is calm (for now). Trust our team to bring you the latest all season long!