Contrasting Lee, Collier and Charlotte homicide rates to nationwide numbers

The Wall Street Journal says nationwide homicide rates have dropped by 20% compared to the numbers from 2023.

The latest numbers indicate levels are approaching pre-pandemic rates.

However, after analyzing the data for Charlotte, Collier and Lee counties, those nationwide numbers don’t tell the whole story.

In Charlotte County, the number of homicides is similar year to year.

Meanwhile, homicide numbers spiked as we got further from the pandemic in Collier County.

Despite the high numbers in Lee County, they are trending downward.

The Wall Street Journal reports a 20% decrease in 133 cities in the United States. Those numbers are taken from the start of 2024 to the end of March and are in contrast to those in 2023.

“This is the complexity of homicides,” said Kristen Ziman, a safety and security expert and retired police chief, “and when you look back at homicides, let’s say starting in the 1960s, going back that far, they started rising there. They peaked in the early 70s, then fell sharply.”

WINK News spoke with Ziman about the falling homicide rates and their meaning.

“This is just simply the cyclical homicide rate, and we see the rise and fall over the years. Now, you talk to other people who will try to highlight exactly what is causing these,” said Ziman, “what is the root cause of views, so we can explore a few of them.”

Those factors can be sociological, economic or psychological in nature, and their impacts can vary depending on the environment.

Lee County saw the sharpest decline in homicide rates. In 2020, there were 22 homicides in Lee County. Fast-forward to 2023, and those numbers fall to just ten.

“It’s a train mentality,” said Carmine Marceno, Lee County’s sheriff. “Utilizing all the tools that we can to get that message out. Zero tolerance on homicides [and] violent crime. People live in a safe law and order community.”

The numbers have stayed roughly the same in Collier and Charlotte counties.

Collier County had four homicides in 2020. Three years later, those numbers increased to six.

In Charlotte County, there were five homicides back in 2020. Those numbers dropped to four in 2023, a small decline in accordance with the national trend.

But how do the community or county leaders and sheriffs play a role in the decline?

“The trifecta saying we will not tolerate that here really does send a social message to individuals in the community: ‘Wow, I can’t commit any crime here because I’ll get caught and I’ll be held accountable,’ so there is absolutely social impact that we cannot ignore,” said Ziman.

We will have to wait and see how the trend turns out by the end of the year, given we are only four months into 2024.