Tropical development now at 40% chance of forming

Odds have decreased to 40% for the possibility of tropical development over the next week.

The diminished possibility comes from the 8 a.m. Friday advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

Another tropical wave also added for potential development.

According to Chief Meteorologist Matt Devitt, the tropical wave could form before passing by the Windward Islands on Monday and Tuesday, but the greater potential would be when it’s in the Caribbean.

That Caribbean track could be key to what this becomes or doesn’t become over the next week. From the models shown, if it takes a more northern track, it could run into one or several mountainous islands, taking a toll on its strength and organization.

If it takes a more southerly track, it would spend more time over the very warm waters of the Caribbean and potentially get stronger if that coincides with lower shear.

By late next week, the large range of possibilities would extend from the Central/Western Caribbean to the Bahamas.

“Remember that because it hasn’t formed yet, it’s too early to talk specifics on track and strength,” said Devitt. “Models historically struggle with tropical systems in their very early stages before a closed low has formed.”

For that reason, take single 10-plus-day model runs floating around the internet with a grain of salt at this point since they can easily change.

Look for consistency and trends.

“Francine” will be the next storm name.