The Weather Authority: First cone out for potential Tropical Storm Rafael

It’s the final month of hurricane season, and while typically, we start to see things quiet down, the Weather Authority is tracking three areas in the tropics.

First, we have Subtropical Storm Patty, which continues to move east in the North Atlantic, bringing heavy rain across the Azores through Monday.

Next, a trough of low pressure near the Greater Antilles has a low 10% chance of developing in the next week.

This is expected to be absorbed by the other area we are watching, Invest 97-L.

Finally, we are watching potential Tropical Cyclone 18. According to the National Hurricane Center, the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday and pass near Jamaica on Monday night.

WINK News Chief Meteorologist Matt Devitt said on X that most models project the potential tropical storm to stay well offshore of Southwest Florida.

Devitt said that the future Rafael will be manageable for Southwest Florida and not close to the impacts from Hurricanes Ian, Helene and Milton.

Though conditions are not as prime for development as they are in peak hurricane season months like August and September, we are continuing to watch this area because tropical moisture will move towards Southwest Florida, increasing our rain chances this week.

While most models keep this weak, gradual development is expected.

As it develops, we’ll be able to pinpoint future impacts this may have on Florida.