CSU updates Atlantic hurricane season forecast to above-average

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Colorado State University issues an updated forecast for hurricane season.

Colorado State University hurricane researchers are now predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in 2023, with 18 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

The above-average season is due to record warm sea surface temperatures, according to a news release by the university.

In June, researchers with the school called for a near-average hurricane season, with 15 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The forecast includes an unnamed subtropical storm in January and Tropical Storms Arlene, Bret and Cindy in June.

Long-term seasonal averages are 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, the release states.

Researchers said there is more uncertainly than normal because of warming Atlantic waters and an expected robust El Niño for the peak of the hurricane season, the release states.

“El Niño increases vertical wind shear in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic, which can tear apart storms as they form, but the extreme anomalous warmth in the Atlantic may counteract some of the typical El Niño-driven wind shear,” according to the press release.

A new forecast will be issued on Aug. 3.

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