Tracking Invest 97L in the Caribbean, heads toward Gulf of Mexico this weekend

The Weather Authority has been tracking a disturbance in the Caribbean designated as Invest 97L as it approaches the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.

According to the National Hurricane Center‘s Thursday 8 p.m. update, the disturbance has a 70% chance of further formation over the next seven days.

As the tropical wave continues to move through the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea, a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms has begun to form over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the northern Leeward Islands.

While further formation chances have remained consistent over the next seven days, NOAA states that there is a medium 40% chance of further development over the next two days.

However, environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive to development after the wave passes the Greater Antilles.

A tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or far southwestern Atlantic Ocean, including in the vicinity of Florida.

According to the Weather Authority Meteorologist Zach Maloch, “The latest models are favoring this system moving toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico; however, it is expected to slow down toward Sunday.”

Maloch continued to mention that the tropical wave would slow down from Sunday through Tuesday, bringing the greatest impact toward north Florida.

As high pressure continues to build across the western Atlantic, the system’s original trajectory was north to northeast, away from Florida.

The Weather Authority had expected a northern trough to pick up the momentum of the disturbance and maintain the predicted pathway; however, the trough is now too weak to pick up the disturbance, causing the projected pathway to be in the vicinity of Florida.

Expect heavy rain showers from Sunday to Tuesday as the disturbance continues to move through the Gulf of Mexico.

The Weather Authority says that “models are still split on the intensity of this system and how strong it could get.”

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