Tropical system possible later this week, eyes northern Gulf

Though we’re past the peak of the Atlantic season, we still need to always watch the tropics here in Florida. There is a disturbance as of Wednesday morning in the Bay of Campeche that’ll be pushing north, then northeast by Friday into the weekend.

Chances for tropical development are currently at 50% and rising. Hurricane Hunters are on standby for Wednesday to potentially investigate. Wind shear will try to hurt the system later this week, but thanks to tropical moisture and water temperatures warmer than normal in the Gulf of Mexico, better organization and strengthening is possible. If it does form in a tropical (or subtropical) storm, the next name up is Nestor.

Computer models, including both the European and American, have shown consistency putting this possible tropical system into the Northern Gulf Coast. The current range is from as far west as Louisiana to as far east as northern Florida. If these trends continue, that would keep the core away from Southwest Florida, but still bring in a chance of rain by drawing in tropical moisture from the south. At this point it wouldn’t be an all-weekend rain event, but still would have to dodge spotty showers and storms.

Keep it here to WINK, your Tropical Weather Authority, for the very latest throughout the week!