A Message from Matt Devitt

Welcome to the 2024 WINK News Hurricane Guide. Hurricane season is now here, and for the next six months, the WINK Weather Team will constantly monitor for tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes that could be a potential threat to Southwest Florida.

The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season finished tied for the 4th most active hurricane season on record with 20 storms and seven hurricanes, three of which became major (category 3+) hurricanes. By comparison, an average year has 14 storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. Last year was slated as a heavyweight boxing match with a strong El Niño in one corner and record warm water temperatures in the other. History has taught us that El Niño increases wind shear in the Tropical Atlantic, which is a good thing because it can weaken or occasionally rip storms apart. Unfortunately, last year’s water temperatures were so warm that they were able to overpower the influence of El Niño to form 20 storms.

Another dynamic that helped us out last year was a weaker than normal high-pressure system in the Atlantic, causing many storms to turn north and away from Florida and the United States, creating what are often referred to as “fish storms.” The downside of a weak Atlantic high is that our rainy season is drier than normal as the winds shift from the Gulf.

Southwest Florida dodged most hurricanes in 2023, but not all the impacts from Hurricane Idalia in late August. Idalia made landfall with as much as 12 feet of storm surge as a Category 3 along the Florida Big Bend. It was the strongest hurricane for that part of the state since 1960, but its rural devastation was limited and the storm name was not retired. Locally, storm surge reached two to four feet on the “dirty” eastern side of Idalia along our coast and waterways. It’s notable because due to a difference in wind direction and where the water came in from, parts of Charlotte County—especially Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda—had more storm surge flooding during Idalia than Hurricane Ian (2022). Overall, Idalia made landfall with impacts more typical of a tropical storm, with wind gusts between 40 and 60 mph and as much as 5 to 9 inches of rain. However, there was one positive from Idalia for beachgoers and photographers, as the storm’s gusty winds brought a population of Caribbean flamingos from Cuba into Southwest Florida.

One change made in 2023 by the WINK Weather Team that will continue this year is the removal of the center line from the forecast cone. Removing the center line encourages residents to look at more possibilities within the forecast cone, instead of just one fixed point in the middle. Hurricane Ian in 2022 was one of the many reasons for the change. Although its landfall did still narrowly fall within the forecast cone, Ian’s center line prediction from the National Hurricane Center shifted 250 miles east in the three days leading up to landfall, and despite warnings from the WINK Weather Team of eastward shifting models, some remained focused on the center line up the coast toward Tampa Bay. A survey of 1,663 Southwest Florida residents showed 97% support the change of removing the forecast cone’s center line.

The outlook for the 2024 hurricane season is for it be active, potentially even hyperactive. The strong El Niño that brought us a rainy and cloudy winter is projected to flip to a La Niña by the peak of the season in August, September, and October. La Niña’s cooler than normal waters in the Eastern Pacific Ocean can alter weather

patterns across the world, often lowering wind shear in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean, which can promote both more storms and stronger storms.

Another factor pointing to an active season is that water temperatures in the Main Development Region of the Atlantic, which stretches from the Yucatan Peninsula to Africa (where many storms ride along), are at record warm levels. In fact, in February and March they were already at water temperatures more typical of July. As a result, the chances of someone being affected by a storm this year along the Gulf or Atlantic will be higher than normal. But, as always, it’s never a guarantee.

We also have to factor in the amount and duration of dry, dusty air from Africa (Saharan Dust) as it moves across the Atlantic, a dynamic that has been known to hurt tropical systems. I will also be looking to see where and how strong high pressure in the Atlantic Ocean will be, as that is a big influence in steering hurricanes.

An interesting change this hurricane season is the use of artificial intelligence (AI) in forecasting tropical systems. The European Model is statistically the most accurate overall among global models, and a companion to it will now be using artificial intelligence to try to improve forecasting and accuracy. According to recent data, the AI European model has already proven to be a little more accurate than the original. We’ll see how it does this hurricane season.

Keep this helpful guide with you and remain vigilant during hurricane season. My best advice is to get ready now when the weather is quiet. Don’t wait until a hurricane is on the way to gather supplies and develop a plan for your family.

I’ll be here every step of the way, calmly guiding you through any future storms that decide to come our way. Trust WINK, The Weather Authority, to deliver accurate information 24/7 all season long. Let’s have a safe 2024!