UCF political scientist shares thoughts on Trump verdict

In a historic ruling, a jury found former President Donald Trump guilty of all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records.

WINK News reporter Olivia Jean looked to the experts to explain how unprecedented this verdict is.

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Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor at the University of Central Florida, weighed in with his thoughts.

Q: What was your reaction to the verdict?

A: “Well, this is historic. It’s unprecedented. Not only have we never had a president indicted and go to trial before, but we certainly have never had one convicted of 34 felony counts. It’s going to be an interesting situation as we get into sentencing, appeals, and see the impact it might have on the presidential election.”

Q: Did you expect the 34 counts to be guilty?

A: “I really didn’t know what to expect, honestly. On one hand, I read the analysis every day during the trial, and some folks thought the prosecution had really proven their case and that the defense didn’t do a very good job. But on the other hand, you never know with a jury trial. So, like many people, I was a little surprised that he was found guilty on all 34 counts. But maybe that shouldn’t have been a surprise, right? The prosecution thought they had a very strong case, which is why they brought it. Of course, Trump supporters will point out that this trial was held in New York, likely resulting in a more liberal, Democratic jury. They continue to insist that this was more of a political prosecution than a legal one.”

Q: Going forward, what’s next?

A: “Well, the judge will handle sentencing next. Both the prosecution and the defense will weigh in on sentencing recommendations, and then the judge will decide. This might take a month or two. After that, everyone expects this to be appealed, and Trump’s lawyers will certainly pursue that. This process could drag on for many months, if not over a year, within the New York state court system. Long before the appeal is resolved, we’ll have the election coming up in November. It will be interesting to see how American voters react to this.”

Q: What have the polls shown?

A: “I’ve seen some polls suggesting that a strong majority of voters won’t be swayed by this one way or the other. The Trump supporters, the MAGA crowd, really like Trump and don’t view this as a legitimate prosecution, so the guilty verdict won’t dissuade them. Conversely, many Democrats were never going to change their vote regardless of this trial’s outcome; they’re voting for Biden. Ultimately, as often happens, it will be up to a smaller number of independent voters or those not strongly affiliated with either party to weigh in. Some surveys conducted before the verdict suggested that some independents would be less likely to vote for Trump if he were convicted of a felony. Now that it’s happened, we’ll have to see if it indeed makes it less likely for some independents to support him. We’ll probably see this reflected in the polls over the next few weeks.”

Q: As you mentioned, this is unprecedented. How big of a deal is this?

A: “It’s historic; it’s a big deal. As I said, we’ve never had a president, to my knowledge, charged with a serious crime, like a felony. We might have had some traffic tickets or minor issues, but never a former president charged and convicted of a serious felony. Adding to that, it’s a former president who’s running again and leading in many polls, which really makes this unprecedented. How is this going to resonate with American voters? The jury of 12 people in New York has spoken, but ultimately, it will be the majority of voters across several states who will deliver the final judgment, the final verdict, on all this.”

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