Two areas to watch in the Tropics

Reporter: Dylan Federico
Published: Updated:
Your weekend looks very summer like with afternoon scattered storms and highs in the 90s.
The week ahead looks similar with a daily chance of storms and highs hovering in the lower 90s.

TROPICAL UPDATE: The tropics are waking up with two areas to watch, one in the Gulf, the other Invest 94L in the Atlantic.

The Weather Authority is watching for sneaky tropical mischief early next weak as a cold front hits the breaks over boiling hot NW Gulf of Mexico.

The NHC calls for a LOW 20% chance of a depression or tropical storm forming. Models don’t do too much as of now with the German (ICON) model only showing development. The American, EURO, and Canadian are less excited about development at the moment, though that doesn’t mean something can’t spin up.

The Gulf is plenty warm, but dry air, wind shear, and a lack of time over water to organize could be a hindrance. Either way, this should at least bring a local heavy rain threat to parts of coastal Texas & Louisiana the first half of next week.

Odds are increasing that INVEST 94L will become a depression or tropical storm while moving west towards the Lesser Antilles & Caribbean midweek next week.

The NHC calls for a MEDIUM 60% chance of development over the next five days. Next name is BONNIE.

All reliable models including the American, European, and Canadian and their ensemble suites develop the disturbance.

Models are signaling development due to unusually favorable conditions this time of the year including warmer than average sea surface temperatures, below normal wind shear, and an abundance of tropical moisture across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean.

As far as steering is concerned, the disturbance will be steered west towards the Lesser Antilles and then Caribbean by a strong area of high pressure to its north over the next 7 days. It is too early to speculate beyond that.

Development east of the Lesser Antilles in the last week of June is rare, but not unprecedented. The only two storms to do so are Hurricane Elsa last year and the 1933 Trinidad Hurricane.

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