Above-average heat, stray showers Friday; monitoring the tropics

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High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and low 90s under partly cloudy skies. A noticeable drop in humidity will make conditions feel pleasant in the late afternoon and evening. Boaters will encounter less favorable conditions than what they had previously experienced throughout the week: A moderate chop within our bays and 1- to 2-foot wave heights are expected within the open Gulf waters.

Stray showers will be possible on Friday; after a dry start to the day, they will primarily form inland. These showers will be weak and short-lived. Severe weather is not expected.

There are two disturbances and one active named storm in the Atlantic. Tropical Depression Lisa is rapidly weakening in the southern Gulf of Mexico. It is no threat to Florida or the U.S. and will likely fall apart over the weekend. Meanwhile, there are two regions of disturbed weather we are monitoring in the Southwest Atlantic.

The disturbance to the north with a low (10%) chance of formation is unlikely to become a named storm and will likely merge with the disturbance to its south. That area now has a medium (40%) chance of formation by Wednesday, and the broad area of low pressure associated with it will likely bring some impacts to Florida next week.

Confidence continues to increase that a broad low-pressure system will form over the weekend or beginning of next week near the Bahamas. Regardless of formation, this will be a sloppy rainmaker for parts of our state. Gusty winds and beach erosion will be possible for some locations on the east coast of Florida. Additionally, the development of a tropical or subtropical cyclone within this region is possible, although it would remain on the weaker side. The next name on our 2022 Atlantic Storm Naming List would be Nicole.

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