Tropical Depression Eta now moving back over water; most of SW Florida back in cone

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As of 10 p.m. Thursday, Eta is still a broad tropical depression with no well-defined center, but is beginning to reemerge over the Caribbean. This is where the restrengthening process is expected to begin. By tomorrow morning, Eta is expected to regain tropical storm strength over the northwestern Caribbean.

The new forecast cone remains nearly the same from now until the time it reaches Cuba. After Cuba, a lot of questions remain regarding the track and timing of this system — the most important question being when and where does it make a turn to the northwest?

The newest forecast cone now has the tropical storm making a turn a little later and farther north than the previous update. This has shifted the forecast track farther north (and closer to Southwest Florida), which has pushed the forecast cone back over the majority of Southwest Florida.

The current track has the center of soon-to-be tropical storm Eta moving over Key West late Sunday night into Monday morning. If this forecast ends up being correct, this would mean we would start to feel some wind impacts beginning Sunday afternoon and continuing through Monday and possibly into Tuesday. It also means we could start to see heavier rain move in Sunday night through Monday.

Right now, Monday is expected to be the windiest and wettest day.

Keep in mind, it is too early to nail down specifics regarding timing, magnitude, and location of impacts. As we’ve already seen, we will likely see additional changes to the official forecast track. For now, just keep checking in on updates! We should have a better idea of where this system is headed once it has a more defined center of circulation.


Locally, Friday should feature less rain than Thursday. Look for isolated rain in the afternoon and yet another day of breezy conditions.

Rain chances will creep up in a big way beginning Saturday as tropical moisture begins to move back in to the area. After Saturday, the forecast all depends on the track and intensity of Eta. Stay tuned!

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